Presidential Approval, the Economy and the Midterms
Since 1946 the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms, and lost more when approval was low. With approval in the 30s and the economy his weakest issue, 2026 sits with the weakest years in that record.
01 | The pattern
Lower approval, bigger House losses
Below 50% approval, the president's party lost 35 seats on average.
The American Presidency Project (UCSB), 'Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections'. Approval is Gallup's latest half-month reading in the table before the election (late October where available; from Obama on, the half-month average). Averages, correlation (Pearson r) and trend line computed.
The record
In the 20 midterms from 1946 to 2022, the president's party lost House seats 18 times. When the president's last Gallup approval before the vote was below 50%, it lost 35 seats on average (11 midterms); at 50% or higher, 15 (9 midterms).
How strong
The correlation between approval and House seat change is 0.57: real, but loose. Clinton lost 54 seats at 48% in 1994; Biden lost 9 at 40% in 2022. For the Senate, where only a third of seats are up, it is 0.38.
What this is not
Approval and seat losses respond to the same conditions: the economy, wars, scandals, the map of seats in play. The chart shows that they move together, not that one causes the other.
02 | The record
Eighteen of twenty midterms cost House seats
Gains came only in 1998 and 2002, both above 64% approval.
The American Presidency Project (UCSB), midterm seat table; approval as on page 1. Seats held by independents or minor parties are attributed to the party they caucused with, per UCSB.
The two exceptions
Clinton's Democrats gained 4 seats in 1998 at 65% approval, during the impeachment fight. George W. Bush's Republicans gained 8 in 2002 at 67%, a year after 9/11.
The largest losses
Obama 2010 (-63 at 45%), Truman 1946 (-56 at 27%) and Clinton 1994 (-54 at 48%). All three were below 50%.
High approval, big losses
Eisenhower lost 48 in 1958 at 57%, and Ford 48 in 1974 at 53%, three months after Nixon resigned. Approval and outcomes vary together, but loosely.
03 | Where 2026 stands
2026 approval sits with the weakest midterms
Polls of 32-39% match or trail every September since Truman.
Past years: Gallup half-month readings, UCSB midterm table (1946 has only early September and late October readings). 2026: UCSB 'Donald J. Trump (2nd Term) Public Approval' table, polls of all adults by AP-NORC, CNN/SSRS, Reuters/Ipsos, Verasight, Economist/YouGov, Ipsos, Focaldata, Marquette Law School and CBS News/YouGov, placed by start date. Seat counts in labels: House change.
The readings
Ten national polls of adults with start dates from 23 July to 11 September 2026 put President Trump's approval between 32% and 39%. In September of past midterm years, Gallup's lowest readings after Truman were 39% (Bush 2006, Trump 2018).
The comparison
In the ten midterms where the final approval reading was 45% or lower, the president's party lost House seats every time: from 9 to 63 seats, a median of 29.
What is at stake
Republicans defend 220 House seats on 3 November 2026, and 20 Senate seats in the regular cycle, plus special elections.
Caveat
Gallup stopped measuring presidential approval in early 2026. The 2026 figures come from several pollsters, as compiled by the American Presidency Project, so they are not a like-for-like continuation of the Gallup series.
04 | What presidents say
Inflation talk peaked with Carter and Reagan
Inflation talk returned from 2022; tariff talk surged in 2025.
Texts: The American Presidency Project (UCSB), State of the Union guidebook; spoken addresses only (written annual messages excluded; 1973 had none). Whole-word, case-insensitive counts of 'inflation', 'jobs', 'tariff(s)' in the UCSB transcript, which includes bracketed audience notes. Rates computed. Counted 30 Sep 2026.
The measure
Uses of 'inflation' and 'jobs' per 10,000 words in 66 State of the Union and first-year addresses delivered to Congress from 1960 to 2026. Rates, not raw counts, because addresses vary from about 3,200 to 10,700 words.
The peaks
Carter used 'inflation' 46 times per 10,000 words in 1979, and Reagan 29 in his February 1981 economic address. From 1986 to 2021 no address passed 8. Biden's 2023 address reached 10, and Trump's 2025 address 7.
Jobs and tariffs
'Jobs' peaked under Obama and in Biden's 2021 address. 'Tariff' or 'tariffs' appeared 18 times in Trump's 2025 address, against 13 times in all 64 addresses from 1960 to 2024 combined.
Limits
Word counts show what a president chose to emphasize. They do not show that a word moved approval.
05 | What voters say
The economy was Trump's weakest issue in May
33% approved of Trump on the economy, his lowest either term.
Quinnipiac University Poll, release of 20 May 2026. 'No answer' is the remainder to 100% (don't know / no answer), computed.
The poll
Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,106 registered voters on 14-18 May 2026 (margin of error 3.7 points). 33% approved of President Trump's handling of the economy and 64% disapproved, down from 38% approval in April.
Overall
His overall job approval was 34%, with 58% disapproving. Quinnipiac called the economy figure the lowest of either term in its polling. It was his lowest rating of the issues the poll asked about.
The economy itself
40% rated the economy poor and 29% not so good; 30% rated it excellent or good.
Limits
One survey of registered voters in May. It is a different population and pollster from the approval series on pages 1-3.
06 | Summary
What the record says about 2026
History points to House losses; it cannot size them.
| Measure | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Midterms with House losses, 1946-2022 | 18 of 20 | UCSB / Gallup |
| Average House change, approval below 50% | -35 seats | 11 midterms |
| Average House change, approval 50% or higher | -15 seats | 9 midterms |
| Range at approval of 45% or less | -63 to -9 | 10 midterms |
| 2026 approval, polls from 23 Jul-11 Sep | 32-39% | 10 polls, not Gallup |
| House / Senate seats Republicans defend | 220 / 20 | UCSB; Senate regular cycle |
| Economy approval, May 2026 | 33% | Quinnipiac, voters |
Computed from the figures on the preceding pages.
What holds
Since 1946 the president's party has almost always lost House seats at midterms, and lost more when approval was low.
Where 2026 sits
Approval of 32-39% in recent polls puts 2026 alongside the weakest midterm years in the record, with the economy as the president's lowest-rated issue in May.
What it can't tell you
The spread is wide: ten past midterms at 45% or less produced losses from 9 to 63 seats. Redistricting, retirements, candidates and events in the final weeks still decide the count.