The Senate Is a Seat Count, Not a National Poll
A race-by-race assessment of the 2026 Senate map, conflicting polls and the arithmetic of control.
Aref M. Bajwa
This is a personal site in which I research topics across my personal interests, namely finance, electoral politics, government policy and the economy.
Latest posts
Trump: A Uniquely American Political Force
A short observation on Trump’s electoral instincts, command of attention and unusual place in American politics.
The Border Record: What Each Party Can Claim—and What It Cannot
Twenty-six years of monthly data show no party owns a straight-line success. The latest decline began under Biden, accelerated under Trump and shows both the power—and the fragility—of executive action.
Iran’s Two Oil Shocks, in Today’s Dollars
1979 and 2026 both put Iran at the center of an oil shock. In real terms, the first was much larger; the second remains unfinished.
HelloFresh vs. Blue Apron: What the Meal-Kit Winners and Losers Reveal
Scale created endurance, but six years of results show why retention, mix and profitable growth matter more than pandemic-era volume.
Anatomy of Collapse: Failed Companies Against Their Survivors
Twenty-seven large bankruptcies matched with industry peers that survived: which warning signs separated them, how early, and how often the same signs cried wolf.