Iran’s Two Oil Shocks, in Today’s Dollars
1979 and 2026 both put Iran at the center of an oil shock. In real terms, the first was much larger; the second remains unfinished.
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Finance
HelloFresh vs. Blue Apron: What the Meal-Kit Winners and Losers Reveal
Scale created endurance, but six years of results show why retention, mix and profitable growth matter more than pandemic-era volume.
Anatomy of Collapse: Failed Companies Against Their Survivors
Twenty-seven large bankruptcies matched with industry peers that survived: which warning signs separated them, how early, and how often the same signs cried wolf.
From Revenue to Value
How revenue, earnings, cash flow and the balance sheet build up to what a business is worth, and where the market price fits.
Broadcom and VMware: The Plan Broadcom Didn’t Buy
VMware's forecast hit its first year and lagged in its second before reporting stopped; Broadcom's software profit later exceeded VMware's plan.
Do Merger Forecasts Come True? Four Deals Tested
Four merger proxies published the forecasts behind their fairness opinions. The near years held, profit and cash missed by more, and later forecast years were rarely tested.
Chevron and Hess: Did the Forecast Hold Up?
Chevron paid the top of Goldman's range for Hess. Hess's October 2023 plan, tested against what Hess then reported.
Three Megadeals, From Signing to Aftermath
AT&T-Time Warner, Disney-Fox and Microsoft-Activision: strategy, price, structure, financing, regulation, results and how the forecasts held up, from the companies' own filings.
The 10-Year Above 5%: One Rate, Several Prices
What pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, what it has repriced, and where the pressure reaches borrowers, valuation and the federal budget.
U.S. and China: How Growth Becomes Economic Power
China grew real output faster, yet its dollar GDP barely gained on America. A source-linked comparison of growth, debt, property, investment and companies.
Lehman Brothers vs. Bear Stearns
Primary-source comparison of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns: leverage, Level 3 assets, liquidity runs, repo funding and why reported deleveraging did not prevent failure.
MrAkhmed Apparel
An illustrative valuation case that follows a hypothetical apparel company from operating performance and cash flow through enterprise value.
Politics
Selected articles based on observations of American political discourse.
The Senate Is a Seat Count, Not a National Poll
A race-by-race assessment of the 2026 Senate map, conflicting polls and the arithmetic of control.
Trump: A Uniquely American Political Force
A short observation on Trump’s electoral instincts, command of attention and unusual place in American politics.
The Border Record: What Each Party Can Claim—and What It Cannot
Twenty-six years of monthly data show no party owns a straight-line success. The latest decline began under Biden, accelerated under Trump and shows both the power—and the fragility—of executive action.
A Bigger Share of Taxes Isn’t a Higher Tax Rate
Income share, tax share and tax rate are different questions. A sourced comparison of work, ownership and the size of the U.S. economy.
Presidential Approval, the Economy and the Midterms
Since 1946 the president's party has usually lost House seats at midterms, with larger losses when approval was low; this article places 2026 in that record.
Where Defense Funding Grew: 1998 to the 2027 Request
The FY2027 request is $1.45 trillion. What the increase buys, title by title and program by program.
The Language of the Union: Presidential Rhetoric, 1960-2026
An analysis of 58 State of the Union addresses: persuasion, optimism, crisis language, presidential voice, economic growth, and distinctive vocabulary from Eisenhower through Trump.
U.S. Fiscal Timeline
Explore how U.S. deficits, federal debt, interest costs and Treasury yields have changed over time.
Electoral College Maps, 1960–2028
Build and compare electoral maps from 1960 through a 2028 scenario.
Technology
Painful Lessons from Early AI Projects
Seven practical lessons from building a website and valuation module with AI.
Notes on the AI Tools I Actually Use
What Copilot, Gemini, Grok, ChatGPT and Claude have proved useful for after extensive work across finance, research, websites and documents.
Archive
How I approach the work
Sources
I begin with filings, official transcripts, government data, and other primary material whenever it is available.
Comparisons
I organize the evidence into comparisons, timelines, and charts that make the underlying argument easier to see.
Limits
I distinguish reported facts from my interpretation and identify incomplete periods or imperfect comparisons.
Plain language
Each project is written for an interested reader—not only for someone who already knows the subject.