Research · M&A · Forecast vs actual

Do Merger Forecasts Come True? Four Deals Tested

Four merger proxies published the forecasts behind their fairness opinions. Lined up against what the companies later reported, the near years held, the latest comparable profit and cash measures missed by more, and later forecast years used in valuation were rarely tested.

By Aref M. Bajwa · Published September 30, 2026 at 10:16 PM PDT

1 | Errors by horizon

Forecast errors widen as fewer deals remain

By year four, one deal is left to test, and it missed.

EXHIBIT 1 | Average top-line error by year after the forecast, and deals still testable
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 Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 Average top-line error, % (columns) +0.4% n=3 -2.3% n=4 -12.4% n=2 -15.8% n=2 -15.6% n=1 -11.8% n=1 Avg. error (red label: below -5%) Deals still testable 0 25 50 75 100 Deals still testable, % (line) 75% 100% 50% 50% 25% 25%

Top line: revenue (Time Warner; combined Disney and Fox), net bookings (Activision), net production (Hess). Year 0 = year the plan was set; Disney's first forecast year, FY2019, is year 1. Columns: simple average of actual vs. forecast, (actual / forecast - 1) x 100, for deals with a reported figure (n shown). Line: share of the four deals with a comparable reported figure. Time Warner year 2 (2018) adds two part-years on different bases. Activision's year 0 matches by construction: the January 2022 forecast's 2021 figure already included its fourth-quarter estimate. Disney has no year 0, so four deals are testable only from year 1. Computed.

The test

Four merger proxies disclosed the forecasts behind their fairness opinions: Time Warner's (October 2016), a combined Disney and Fox forecast Goldman Sachs compiled for Fox's board (June 2018), Activision's (January 2022) and Hess's (October 2023). Each is compared with what was later reported, lined up by years after the year the plan was set.

Near years

In the year each plan was set, the average top-line miss was +0.4%; much of that year was already known. One year out it was -2.3%, and three of the four deals were within 1.3%.

Later years

From year two only Time Warner and Disney can be tested, and from year four only Disney. The average miss in years two to five was -12% to -16%; those averages are mostly Disney, whose later years included COVID-19.

Limits

Four deals, different measures. Averages beyond year one rest on one or two deals: a reading of the record, not a statistical test.

2 | Profit and cash

Latest comparable profit and cash measures missed by more

In the latest year tested, comparable profit and cash measures missed by 7-14%, with definition changes.

EXHIBIT 2 | Forecast vs. reported: profit and cash lines, and Disney revenue
AAAWgmp1bWIAAAAeanVtZGMycGEAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3EDYzJwYQAAABZcanVtYgAAAEdqdW1kYzJtYQARABCAAACqADibcQN1cm46YzJwYTpiMjdkYTAzYi04YjE4LTQ0ODQtYjViNC0yY2M5Zjc1OTBmYjkAAAADl2p1bWIAAAApanVtZGMyYXMAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3EDYzJwYS5hc3NlcnRpb25zAAAAALxqdW1iAAAARGp1bWRjYm9yABEAEIAAAKoAOJtxE2MycGEuaW5ncmVkaWVudC52MwAAAAAYYzJzaBwk/X7pqV5Fj03Jn8QCc2sAAABwY2JvcqNpZGM6Zm9ybWF0bWltYWdlL3N2Zyt4bWxqaW5zdGFuY2VJRHgseG1wOmlpZDo4MjA5MGE3ZS1jY2E1LTQ2M2ItODUzMS02Y2FjY2E3NTEzYWZscmVsYXRpb25zaGlwaHBhcmVudE9mAAAB4mp1bWIAAABBanVtZGNib3IAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3ETYzJwYS5hY3Rpb25zLnYyAAAAABhjMnNonTUyoNEk2sb3eFWwDIpzSQAAAZljYm9yomdhY3Rpb25zgqJmYWN0aW9ua2MycGEub3BlbmVkanBhcmFtZXRlcnOha2luZ3JlZGllbnRzgaJjdXJseC1zZWxmI2p1bWJmPWMycGEuYXNzZXJ0aW9ucy9jMnBhLmluZ3JlZGllbnQudjNkaGFzaFgglLwgY+haqczxE1NjtoeORbx9Tsjhf40o97kI2KeVYJekZmFjdGlvbngdY29tLmFudGhyb3BpYy5jbGF1ZGUucHJvdmlkZWRqcGFyYW1ldGVyc6F4H2NvbS5hbnRocm9waWMub3JpZ2luLWNvbmZpZGVuY2VndW5rbm93bmtkZXNjcmlwdGlvbnhmQ2xhdWRlIHByb3ZpZGVkIHRoaXMgZmlsZSBhdCB0aGUgcmVxdWVzdCBvZiBhIHVzZXIgYW5kIG1heSBoYXZlIGNyZWF0ZWQgb3IgbW9kaWZpZWQgdGhlIGZpbGUgY29udGVudHMubXNvZnR3YXJlQWdlbnShZG5hbWVmQ2xhdWRlcmFsbEFjdGlvbnNJbmNsdWRlZPUAAADIanVtYgAAAEBqdW1kY2JvcgARABCAAACqADibcRNjMnBhLmhhc2guZGF0YQAAAAAYYzJzaK/qu3rA4D9Y3aX6yTm1PZMAAACAY2JvcqVjYWxnZnNoYTI1NmNwYWRNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGRoYXNoWCDoH5aXUuRHLOaTCU3RDeA031JnqN6mAsVrVlJ+rz5UsmRuYW1lbmp1bWJmIG1hbmlmZXN0amV4Y2x1c2lvbnOBomVzdGFydBjbZmxlbmd0aBkeBAAAAj5qdW1iAAAAJ2p1bWRjMmNsABEAEIAAAKoAOJtxA2MycGEuY2xhaW0udjIAAAACD2Nib3KlY2FsZ2ZzaGEyNTZpc2lnbmF0dXJleE1zZWxmI2p1bWJmPS9jMnBhL3VybjpjMnBhOmIyN2RhMDNiLThiMTgtNDQ4NC1iNWI0LTJjYzlmNzU5MGZiOS9jMnBhLnNpZ25hdHVyZWppbnN0YW5jZUlEeCx4bXA6aWlkOmY3ZDgxMzdjLTY0NDYtNGY3ZC05YzNkLTZlZjU1MjVmZjBkZnJjcmVhdGVkX2Fzc2VydGlvbnODomN1cmx4LXNlbGYjanVtYmY9YzJwYS5hc3NlcnRpb25zL2MycGEuaW5ncmVkaWVudC52M2RoYXNoWCCUvCBj6FqpzPETU2O2h45FvH1OyOF/jSj3uQjYp5Vgl6JjdXJseCpzZWxmI2p1bWJmPWMycGEuYXNzZXJ0aW9ucy9jMnBhLmFjdGlvbnMudjJkaGFzaFggvIZyeTQvh9SmLL+bdi0PG79PMCF1Q3p+bVCIofeGVweiY3VybHgpc2VsZiNqdW1iZj1jMnBhLmFzc2VydGlvbnMvYzJwYS5oYXNoLmRhdGFkaGFzaFggB39x8YxPMA6H11kHw3ixyLPCsdCf8W7HIF66f8xGxZd0Y2xhaW1fZ2VuZXJhdG9yX2luZm+jZG5hbWVvQW50aHJvcGljIEZpbGVzZ3ZlcnNpb25lMS4wLjBrc3BlY1ZlcnNpb25lMi40LjAAABA4anVtYgAAAChqdW1kYzJjcwARABCAAACqADibcQNjMnBhLnNpZ25hdHVyZQAAABAIY2JvctKEWQISogEmGCFZAgowggIGMIIBjaADAgECAhRA5aAK7sI50L64g/oGQgU9Z1UTADAKBggqhkjOPQQDAzBJMRcwFQYDVQQKEw5BbnRocm9waWMsIFBCQzEuMCwGA1UEAxMlQW50aHJvcGljIENvbnRlbnQgQ3JlZGVudGlhbHMgUm9vdCBDQTAeFw0yNjA4MDcxODQzNTZaFw0yODA4MDYxOTQzNTZaMEQxFzAVBgNVBAoTDkFudGhyb3BpYywgUEJDMSkwJwYDVQQDEyBBbnRocm9waWMgQ2xhdWRlIENvbnRlbnQgU2lnbmluZzBZMBMGByqGSM49AgEGCCqGSM49AwEHA0IABJh6CmvLUBgFFNU0vUKlOVtE6djd17L5SuwX0LemFisBM3dkd/3cyjxFA3Qo5S46fX0/ihY0VZ7mfb9KF703t5OjWDBWMA4GA1UdDwEB/wQEAwIHgDAVBgNVHSUEDjAMBgorBgEEAYPoXgIBMAwGA1UdEwEB/wQCMAAwHwYDVR0jBBgwFoAUzlHiBIFOZFsj+OPEz5o+nMHXXMIwCgYIKoZIzj0EAwMDZwAwZAIwMXMdFJ4BetLLVY7ORuE9noqbbAZOZn/aArXyTwFAZfKrPzxF2vPoJNf1+UCdg1XGAjBwX1zd9WGqYkqmL5SFqw1QySjr1zJfpJM9+1rdDwSPLMOPOjKuiXjoU/pUUeG9RwmhY3BhZFkNngAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPZYQMW+56kW5MBQED/ItYlzKwiC5+1dpMw22MsbHimR/UXcRZZ6Ot/B3PHkBWLuYWI6cnxlh2TzLwA+t6GtcF9NS44= 2016 2017 2019 0 3 6 9 12 Time Warner adj. OIBDA / EBITDA, $bn 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 30 60 90 120 Disney + Fox revenue, $bn 2021 2022 0 1 2 3 4 5 Activision operating income, $bn 2023 2024 0 2 4 6 8 Hess operating cash flow, $bn −30 −20 −10 0 10 +0.5% -0.7% -7.3% −40 −30 −20 −10 0 10 -7.3% -26.6% -28.5% -15.6% -11.8% −30 −20 −10 0 10 -0.1% -11.2% −30 −20 −10 0 10 +0.5% -13.6% Forecast Reported Actual vs. forecast, % (right)

Forecasts from each proxy; reported figures from filings. Time Warner 2016-17 adj. OIBDA computed as adjusted operating income plus D&A; 2019 is AT&T's WarnerMedia segment EBITDA (2018 omitted, split year). Activision: total segment operating income is the nearest reported measure to forecast EBIT before stock-based pay, but the measures have different exclusions and are not like-for-like. Hess: GAAP net cash provided by operating activities; the proxy does not disclose the forecast's working-capital assumption. Disney: FY2019 unaudited pro forma, FY2020-23 reported. Variances computed.

Time Warner

Adjusted OIBDA came within 1% of plan in 2016 and 2017. In 2019, under AT&T, WarnerMedia's segment EBITDA was 7.3% short while revenue was 3.0% short, on a measure changed by purchase accounting and a wider business.

Activision

Net bookings in 2022 were 1.3% below the January 2022 forecast. Total segment operating income, the closest reported measure to the forecast's EBIT before stock-based pay, was 11.2% below, but the two measures exclude different items.

Hess

Production came within 1.3% of plan in 2023 and 2024. Operating cash flow was 13.6% short in 2024. Changes in operating assets and liabilities reduced reported cash flow by $753m, but the forecast's working-capital assumption is undisclosed.

Disney

Disney does not report EBITDA, so its profit forecast cannot be tested. Revenue missed in every year, by 7% to 29%.

3 | Every reading

Near years held; Disney missed every year

12 of 14 readings after the plan year fell below plan.

EXHIBIT 3 | Top-line actual vs. forecast, every deal and year, %
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 Time Warner revenue Disney + Fox revenue Activision net bookings Hess production −30 −25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 Actual vs. forecast, % -0.1 +0.0 +1.3 +0.5 -7.3 -1.3 -1.0 +1.9 -26.6 -3.0 -28.5 -15.6 -11.8 Years 0-1 Years 2-3 Years 4-5

Top-line measures as in Exhibit 1. Shaded band = within 2%. Readings after the plan year include the profit and cash lines in Exhibit 2. Disney shortfall share: FY2020-21 shortfall / FY2019-23 shortfall, computed.

Reading the chart

Each column is one year of one deal's top line against its forecast. The shaded band marks results within 2% of plan.

Hits

Seven of the eight top-line readings for Time Warner, Activision and Hess were within 2%; the eighth, Time Warner's 2019 revenue, was 3.0% short. None of Disney's five years came within 7%.

Direction

After the year each plan was set there are 14 readings, top line and profit or cash. 12 were below plan. The two above it were Time Warner revenue in 2017 (+0.5%) and 2018 (+1.9%, two part-years on different bases).

Disney

About 60% of Disney's five-year shortfall fell in fiscal 2020 and 2021, when COVID-19 closed parks and cinemas. It missed before COVID too, by 7% in fiscal 2019, and was still 12% short in fiscal 2023.

4 | What can be tested

The later forecast years are the least testable

Half of Activision's and Hess's forecast years were not reported separately before closing.

EXHIBIT 4 | What happened to each forecast year
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 Time Warner 2016-2025 Disney + Fox FY2019-FY2023 Activision 2021-2026 Hess 2023-2028 0 2 4 6 8 10 Forecast years 3 5 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 6 Tested Partly tested Absorbed by buyer, never reported Extrapolated for DCF, not disclosed

Forecast years as disclosed in each proxy. Time Warner: 2016E-2019E disclosed; 2020-2025 extrapolated by management for the DCFs (S-4/A). Partly tested: Time Warner 2018 (two part-years on different bases), Activision 2023 (first half), Hess 2025 (first quarter). Absorbed includes years not yet ended (Activision 2026; Hess 2026-2028). Disney counts the combined-company forecast; the forecasts for Fox's own businesses (21CF's to FY2023; Disney's to FY2028) cannot be tested.

Why it matters

Later forecast years and terminal value can account for a large share of a DCF. The filings do not disclose a consistent year-by-year value split, and those are the years these tests reach least.

Time Warner

The plan disclosed 2016 to 2019, all testable, with 2018 split by the closing. For the banks' DCFs, management extrapolated the plan to 2025; those years are not disclosed year by year.

Disney

Disney reports the combined company, so all five combined forecast years can be tested. Fox's own businesses cannot be separated after March 2019.

Activision and Hess

Activision's last standalone results covered the first half of 2023; Hess's covered the first quarter of 2025. Their remaining forecast years sit inside Microsoft's and Chevron's results and are unlikely to be reported on a standalone basis.

5 | Price and outcome

Where consideration sat, and what followed

Hess's signing-date implied value sat near the top of its range; Fox's consideration was above it.

EXHIBIT 5 | Consideration position in target-board DCF ranges vs. worst tested miss
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 Time Warner Disney + Fox Activision Hess 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Price position in target's DCF ranges, % (columns) 26% 148% 26% 97% Top of DCF range Price position (avg. of banks) Above the range Bank min-max Worst miss (hollow: other forecast) −40 −30 −20 −10 0 Worst tested miss, % (markers) -7.3% EBITDA 2019 -28.5% revenue FY2021 -11.2% op. income 2022 -13.6% cash flow 2024

Position = (consideration - low) / (high - low) x 100, target-board bank DCFs only: Allen & Company, Citi, Morgan Stanley (Time Warner); Goldman Sachs, Centerview (Fox RemainCo, per 21CF share); Allen & Company (Activision); Goldman Sachs illustrative DCF (Hess). Hess uses the $171 signing-date implied value from the fixed 1.025 exchange ratio and Chevron's 20 Oct. 2023 close, not a fixed or closing price. Columns show the average; whiskers show bank min-max. Worst miss: largest shortfall in top line, profit or operating cash flow (Exhibits 1-2); excludes Hess E&P spending. Reported 2024 E&P capital and exploratory expenditures were 25% above the proxy forecast line (cash additions 19% above), including about $635m of FPSO purchases accelerated from 2025. Disney's marker (hollow) tests the combined-company forecast, not the 21CF forecast behind the Fox-board DCFs. Computed.

Consideration

Time Warner's $107.50 sat 22% to 30% of the way up its three banks' DCF ranges, and Activision's $95 sat 26% up its range. Hess's signing-date implied value of $171 per share sat 97% up Goldman's range; holders ultimately received 1.025 Chevron shares and the value floated. Fox's $38 was above both Fox-board DCF ranges; Disney's own bankers reached it only by adding Disney's synergies.

Outcome

Time Warner and Activision, priced about a quarter of the way up, had worst misses of -7.3% and -11.2%. Hess's worst was -13.6%. Disney's combined revenue missed by as much as -28.5%, but that tests a different forecast from the one behind Fox's price, and Fox's own businesses cannot be tested.

Reading

Consideration near the top of a DCF range leaves less room for a forecast to miss. The circumstances differ, including COVID-19 at Disney; four deals, one of them an imperfect match, cannot show cause and effect.

6 | Scorecard

Four deals, one scorecard

Near years held except Disney's; later forecast years were less testable.

EXHIBIT 6 | Forecast test scorecard
Time WarnerDisney + FoxActivisionHess
Forecast setOct 2016Jun 2018Jan 2022Oct 2023
Years disclosed2016-2019FY2019-FY20232021-20262023-2028
Years tested3 + 2018 split5 (combined)2 + H1 20232 + Q1 2025
Deal value in DCF range22-30%Above top26%97%
Top line, year 1+0.5%-7.3%-1.3%-1.0% (volume)
Worst top-line year-3.0% (2019)-28.5% (FY2021)-1.3% (2022)-1.0% (2024)
Profit / cash, worst-7.3% EBITDAnot reported-11.2% op. inc.-13.6% cash flow
Forecast testedTime Warner planCombined co. (Goldman)Jan 2022 forecastHess plan
Main caveatAT&T measure from 2019COVID-19; perimeterDifferent reported basisForecast WC assumption undisclosed

Deal-value position and variances computed from the four studies; see Exhibits 1-5 for bases. Hess's E&P adjusted EBITDAX, the plan's profit line, is not reported in Hess's earnings releases or 10-Ks.

Near years

Plans set when much of the year was known came within 1.3%. That tests the starting point more than the forecast.

Profit and cash

In the latest year tested, the nearest reported profit and cash measures missed by more than the top line in all three deals that report them, though the Time Warner and Activision measures are not like-for-like with the forecasts.

Direction

12 of 14 readings after the plan year were below plan; the largest, Disney's, came with COVID-19.

Next

A broader, consistently defined sample could turn this pattern into a measured error by horizon.

A1 | Appendix

Each plan against what was reported

Solid lines track the plans early; Disney's gap opens at once.

EXHIBIT A1 | Forecast (dashed) vs. reported (solid), by deal
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 2014 2016 2018 25 30 35 40 Time Warner revenue, $bn Reported Forecast 2018 2020 2022 60 75 90 105 Disney + Fox revenue, $bn 2020 2022 2024 2026 6 8 10 12 14 Activision net bookings, $bn 2022 2024 2026 2028 300 400 500 600 700 Hess production, Mboe/d

Forecasts from each proxy (Activision: January 2022 forecasts used by Allen & Company). Reported figures from company filings as detailed in each study.

How to read it

Dashed lines are each target's forecast as disclosed in the proxy; solid lines are reported results, with prior years for context.

Bases

Time Warner 2018 adds two part-years on different bases, and 2019 is AT&T's WarnerMedia segment. Disney FY2018 and FY2019 are pro forma for Fox. Activision is net bookings. Hess 2021-22 production includes Libya, sold in November 2022.

Sources: AT&T Form S-4/A, 5 Jan. 2017; Disney/21CF joint proxy statement/prospectus, 28 Jun. 2018; Activision Blizzard DEFM14A, 21 Mar. 2022; Hess Corporation DEFM14A, 26 Apr. 2024; Time Warner, AT&T, Disney, Activision Blizzard and Hess Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K earnings releases, as detailed in each study.